Average Canadian House Prices Are Up 2.7%

Average Canadian House Prices Are Up 2.7%

The National Bank of Canada  has published their latest house price data. Its interesting. Overall house prices are up 2.7% on average across the country from this time last year. Prices in Toronto and Hamilton were up over 5%. While they don’t publish specific data just for Guelph,  based on what we are seeing happening right now I would venture to say that prices are up at least that much. There are plenty of multiple offer situations going on and well priced homes are selling in days not weeks, often for over asking price. We have noted that certain townhouse complexes have had price increases of close to 10% since last year

 

JANUARY HOME PRICES: A FIFTH CONSECUTIVE MONTHLY DECLINE

In January the Teranet-National Bank National Composite House Price Index™ was up 2.7% from a year earlier, the smallest 12-month gain since November 2009. By way of comparison, the U.S. Case-Shiller home price index for 20 urban regions for November (the latest available reading) was up 5.5% from a year earlier. For the Canadian index, January was the 14th straight month of deceleration in 12-month inflation. In six of the 11 metropolitan markets surveyed for the index, the 12-month rise exceeded the cross-country average in January: Halifax (6.6%), Quebec City (6.0%), Hamilton (5.9%), Toronto (5.3%), Calgary (4.3%) and Winnipeg (3.4%). Ottawa-Gatineau matched the average (2.7%). Lagging it were Montreal (2.6%), Edmonton (2.0%) and Victoria (1.1%). For Victoria it was the first 12-month gain in 13 months. Prices in Vancouver were down 2.5% from a year earlier, for a sixth month of 12-month deflation.

Teranet – National Bank National Composite House Price Index™

 

 

The January composite index was down 0.3% from December, a fifth straight monthly decline. Prices were down from the month before in seven markets. For Calgary (−0.1%) it was the second consecutive monthly decline, for Vancouver (−0.8%) and Edmonton (−0.7%) it was the third, for Toronto (−0.4%) and Winnipeg (-0.3%) the fourth, for Montreal (−0.2%) the fifth. The 1.1% decline in Hamilton was the second in three months, and the largest in this region in two years. Prices were up 1.4% on the month in Quebec City and Victoria, 1.7% in Halifax (interrupting a sequence of three monthly declines) and 0.5% (interrupting a sequence of four monthly drops) in Ottawa-Gatineau.

Teranet – National Bank House Price Index™

The historical data of the Teranet – National Bank House Price Index™ is available at www.housepriceindex.ca.

Metropolitan area Index level
January 2013
% change m/m % change y/y
Calgary 161.01 -0.1 % 4.3 %
Edmonton 164.95 -0.7 % 2.0 %
Halifax 142.24 1.7 % 6.6 %
Hamilton 139.47 -1.1 % 5.9 %
Montreal 147.80 -0.2 % 2.6 %
Ottawa 141.23 0.5 % 2.7 %
Quebec 175.53 1.4 % 6.0 %
Toronto 146.29 -0.4 % 5.3 %
Vancouver 164.55 -0.8 % -2.5 %
Victoria 141.51 1.4 % 1.1 %
Winnipeg 186.76 -0.3 % 3.4 %
National Composite 6 151.84 -0.3 % 2.5 %
National Composite 11 153.00 -0.3 % 2.7 %

The Teranet–National Bank House Price Index™ is estimated by tracking observed or registered home prices over time using data collected from public land registries. All dwellings that have been sold at least twice are considered in the calculation of the index. This is known as the repeat sales method; a complete description of the method is given atwww.housepriceindex.ca

The Teranet–National Bank House Price Index™ is an independently developed representation of average home price changes in six metropolitan areas: Ottawa, Toronto, Calgary, Vancouver, Montreal and Halifax. The national composite index is the weighted average of the six metropolitan areas. The weights are based on aggregate value of dwellings as retrieved from the 2006 Statistics Canada Census. According to that census1, the aggregate value of occupied dwellings in the metropolitan areas covered by the indices was $1.168 trillion, or 53% of the Canadian aggregate value of $2.207 trillion. 

All indices have a base value of 100 in June 2005. For example, an index value of 130 means that home prices have increased 30% since June 2005.

By:

Marc Pinsonneault
Senior Economist
Economy & Strategy Group
National Bank of Canada

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